Thursday, July 1, 2010

Paul Saffo - forecasting

3 driving cycle --> continuations

PRDE --> prosperity, recession, depression, improvement

human population is now majority urban....

sun spots... electro magentic

multiple scenarios...

y-axis - innovation rate
x-axis - public acceptance 

time , event   --->  wild cards, uncertainty, wild cards

never mistake a clear view for a short distance...

s-curve ...  expectation,  underestimation....


Cherish failure,  especially when it's someone else's failure

in the biological world innovation is mutation.....

indicators precede inflections*  
and the stranger the better

Romba iRobot

robots should drive because they actually can be safer,   yet humans continue to drive when they have accidents all the time...
ref: accident on highway 99...
look back twice as far backwards to be able to see forward...  i.e.   look back 20 yrs to see 10 yrs,  look back 10 yrs to see 5 yrs forward, etc, etc

cheap sensors are really making a huge difference

embrace uncertainty...

if you fear change leave it in here....
if you fear change leave it in here...



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